Thursday 17th September, 2026
Natural Resources Wales have published the latest stock assessments for the “Principal” Welsh salmon rivers.
For the second year in a row, populations in all 22 of the rivers were deemed “at risk”. This means that the species is at risk of failing to maintain sustainable populations in the future.
Why the decline?
The species spends a large part of its lifecycle in freshwater, but its problems are not confined to rivers.
We know that there are numerous factors affecting salmon in Welsh rivers. Barriers to migration, poor water quality and quantity, habitat loss and climate change are all contributing to their decline.
Efforts to counter these problems by rivers trusts, Natural Resources Wales and others are essential and on-going.
However, survival rates for salmon during their marine phase have fallen from around 20% a few decades ago to less than 2% now.
More research has been carried out in recent years on the causes of this decreased marine survival but it is still fair to say that much less is known about the pressures on this phase of the salmon’s lifecycle.
Electrofishing surveys in some Welsh river tributaries have found encouraging numbers of juvenile salmon in the past three years.
Some caution needed with stock assessment methods
The stock assessment method itself needs to be treated with a little caution.
The number of salmon caught by anglers is used as part of the overall calculation but the reliability of that data is sometimes questionable.
River conditions, restrictions on fishing methods and the skill or experience level of anglers will all affect the chances of catching a salmon, yet are not factored into the equation.
And as dramatic a headline it makes, for the same reasons the drop in the number of salmon caught by anglers should never be equated directly with the total number of salmon in rivers.
However, the current stock assessment model is probably the best method of measurement we have right now and is probably giving a fair overall picture of the severity of the situation.
Any hope on the horizon?
Surveys in some Welsh tributary streams have shown some relatively strong results for juvenile salmon in the past three years, despite the record low angler catches of the adults that spawned these young fish.
This could indicate that work to restore and protect spawning streams is paying off.
In English rivers that have had impassable barriers removed and water quality improvements recently, salmon have successfully recolonised the river upstream.
But while good numbers of juveniles is some good news at least, they are no guarantee of strong numbers of returning adults to those rivers in several years’ time.
With such low return rates from the sea, Welsh rivers need to be producing as many juveniles as possible. River restoration continues to be a key element to ensuring salmon survival.
But so too is the work to find out exactly what is happening in the North Atlantic, along with efforts to correct problems there.
The urgency for Welsh salmon cannot be understated and Welsh Government need to commit firmly to programmes designed to halt their decline.